Technically Speaking, May 2020

The joke running around the Internet is that this 2020 Leap Year had 29 days in February, 300 days in March and five years in April. It is already a year of biblical proportions, with locusts swarming in Africa, the global plague of COVID-19, and then murder hornets arriving in Washington state. The foot of snow that fell in the Northeast on May 8 seemed mild, but we can just wonder if June is thinking, “hold my beer.”

Yes, it is a different world. Millions are out of work, yet the stock market is on the road to recovery. I hold my tongue when my online friends wonder how that could be. It brings me to a quote from former Association president Phil Roth, who said, “The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”

But wait! There’s more!

Let’s not forget that crude oil traded at negative numbers in April thanks to the destruction of demand in the pandemic and so much supply that there was literally no place to put it. And the government is flooding the market with so much liquidity that negative interest rates seem to be a given in the U.S., as they already are across Europe and the world. The Fed wants to buy junk bonds, for crying out loud!

But again, in a world where many businesses were mandated to close, that fortunately does not apply to most of us in the Association. Our businesses can exist in a no-touch world. And it is our responsibility to keep going, and to be thankful.

In this month’s issue, we are thankful for the time spent with several technicians who have passed away. Tony Tabell, the second Association president is memorialized by Ken Tower, who worked for him long ago. Kenneth Safian, a long-time member and contributor also left us, as did Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest.

The CMT Association’s own Barbara Terry has a great story about the initiative between the CMT Association and the CFA Association in Minnesota to fight hunger.

Also in Minnesota, that Chapter held its first virtual meeting with speaker Mark Newton, CMT.

This month’s member interview is with Jim Erdmier, CMT, co-chair of the Chicago Chapter. We acknowledge members who were finalists and winners in their categories at the Technical Analyst (magazine) Awards. And, of course, we’ve got a few encouraging words from the CMT Association president and other Association news as we continue to mint fresh new CMTs.

Lockdown, schmockdown! The CMT Association is open for business!

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Greetings All! I hope you are all staying safe and well in this COVID-19 situation. The instability this creates is...

Read More

CMTs Honored by The Technical Analyst 2020 Awards

The U.K.’s premier technical analysis publication The Technical Analyst recently announced its 2020 Awards celebrating the best in technical analysis,...

Read More

Chat with Gautam Shah, TA Award Winner

The CMT Association reached out to Gautam Shah, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, Founder & Chief Strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research and...

Read More

In Memory of Tony Tabell

Anthony (Tony) Tabell, 88, founding member and third President of the CMT Association, died...

Read More

Remembering Ken Safian

Longtime member Kenneth Safian, president of Safian Investment Research, passed away on April 9, 2020, at age 83.

Ken was...

Read More

Remembering Jim Schmidt

Jim Schmidt, owner and publisher of Timer Digest, passed away on April 21. Those of us who hail from the...

Read More

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

The Twin Cities Chapter of the CMT held a virtual meeting on April 21 in accordance with Minnesota guidelines for...

Read More

Public Service Announcement: Pure Gobbledygook

In the past, I have given seminars on how we technicians should write for and speak to the media. The...

Read More

Member Interview with Jim Erdmeier

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a prop trader specializing in equity index futures. I trade on...

Read More

The Sheridan Story

Together, members and friends of the Minnesota Chapter of the CMT Association and the CFA Society of Minnesota are matching all...

Read More

Hurst Time Cycle event with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Ashish Kyal, CMT, held a training event in April on the topic of combining Hurst’s time cycles with Elliott Wave...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Read More

President’s Letter

Greetings All! I hope you are all staying safe and well in this COVID-19 situation. The instability this creates is hard. There is no denying it.

Of course, the flip side is true, too. In the wake of this challenge, there are also opportunities.  I hope you are being presented with your fair share.

This month’s short note steals a phrase from the classic band Pink Floyd (take a listen if you can). Anyway, I’m renting that phrase and asking, “Hey You – CMT Association – is there anybody out there?”

Why do I ask this question? Well, I was recently speaking to a fellow CMT Association member and he asked me if I write content for Technically Speaking. I replied to him that I had been writing for months and had written on the topics of the organization, professional development, and our CMT award winners, just to name a few. He said he had no idea I was writing and that he had not read one article. Not ONE!

Needless to say, I was in a state of disbelief. He wasn’t reading it, and he is one of our senior/foundational members. I was disappointed, as well, because I work hard to pen a meaningful column reflecting on our organization, our profession, and our lives. I try to motivate, inspire, educate, and connect people. But, unfortunately, I don’t think I’ve succeeded as planned.

In my opinion, Technically Speaking is one of the greatest benefits of membership in the CMT Association. Our monthly newsletter showcases the kind of research and thought leadership that continues to draw thousands of people around the world to the study of Technical Analysis and the CMT Program. Thanks to the work of our editor, Technically Speaking consistently presents interesting articles and timely evaluations from around the Association. It is a publication well worth your time reading each month!

Well, as with most things in life, I’m optimistic. To me, it’s not a failure that my colleague did not read my letters – it’s just feedback. So, I’ve begun to seek more ways to give you, the CMT Association members, an incentive to read more of Technically Speaking. We are always open to your input as well.

Until next month…

Sincerely,

Scott Richter

President

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

CMTs Honored by The Technical Analyst 2020 Awards

The U.K.’s premier technical analysis publication The Technical Analyst recently announced its 2020 Awards celebrating the best in technical analysis, data and trading software. The CMT Association is proud to acknowledge its many members and charterholders who were among the finalists and winners in several categories.

BEST EQUITY RESEARCH

Finalist:         All Star Charts

Winner:           Oppenheimer & Co., Ari Wald, CMT, CFA, Head of Technical Analysis

BEST FX RESEARCH

Winner:           RW Advisory (Joint Winner), Ron William, CMT, MSTA, Market Strategist

BEST FIXED INCOME RESEARCH

Winner:           RBC Capital Markets, George Davis, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist

BEST EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH

Joint Winners: Goldilocks Premium Research (Joint Winner), Gautam Shah, CMT & Continuum Economics, Robert Zukowski, CMT

BEST MULTI-ASSET RESEARCH

Winner:           Haywood Securities, Aazan Habib, CMT, CFA, Market Analyst (now at Paradigm Capital)

BEST INSTITUTIONAL BROKERAGE FOR EQUITY RESEARCH

Winner:           Macro Risk Advisors, John Kolovos, CMT, CFA, Chief Technical Strategist

BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

Winner:           Goldilocks Premium Research, Gautam Shah, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, Founder & Chief Strategist

TECHNICAL ANALYST OF THE YEAR

Finalists:          (Partial list)

    • Frank Cappelleri (Instinet)
    • George Davis (RBC Capital Markets)
    • Aazan Habib (Paradigm Capital, previously Haywood Securities)
    • John Kolovos (Macro Risk Advisors)
    • JC Parets (All Star Charts)
    • Gautam Shah (Goldilocks Premium Research)
    • Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies)
    • Technical Analysis Team (Continuum Economics)
    • Ari Wald (Oppenheimer & Co.)

Winner:           Gautam Shah, Founder & Chief Strategist, Goldilocks Premium Research

Here is the link to the full slate of categories and winners:

https://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/awards/winners-and-finalists/

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood, CMT

Tyler Wood serves as Managing Director of CMT Association with the aim of elevating investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. He is a seasoned business...

Chat with Gautam Shah, TA Award Winner

The CMT Association reached out to Gautam Shah, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, Founder & Chief Strategist at Goldilocks Premium Research and winner of the Technical Analyst of the Year title in the aforementioned Technical Analyst Awards. Here’s an excerpt of our conversation, which touched briefly on his process and the awards.

CMT: What encouraged you to apply for the Technical Analysis Awards?

GS: For almost a decade now I have been following these awards closely, and I was impressed by the quality of the jury and nominations overall. In my previous role with one of India’s largest brokerages I did not have the opportunity to present my work in detail. Now, with my own venture, I can showcase cutting-edge comprehensive research in various forms for subscribers. We thought our work could compete with the best in the business and so we were encouraged to apply for the awards.

CMT: Can you describe your process?

GS: Our approach is top-down. We start researching on the mother index, form an opinion and then move on to the stronger sectors, eventually looking directly at the stocks in those sectors. A lot of our work revolves around Dow Theory, Relative Strength, RSI, Patterns, Moving Averages and Candlesticks. We believe that for a mega-trend to play out, most of these indicators would come together to signal a large move ahead. By refining our approach with multiple parameters, our conviction level is high, and we can present our perspective boldly to our subscribers.

This approach helps us in weeding out the whipsaws which have become more and more rampant in today’s volatile market environment. We believe this comprehensive multi-step model gives us the edge to understand markets, however illogical they might seem. A great example is the recent market behavior in the US and the world over. One of the fastest bear markets in history was recorded. Using the abovementioned approach, we were able to call the directional move and stayed with it until evidence for a reversal emerged. We would urge new practitioners of technical analysis to go back in history and study the price action based on this same toolset.

CMT: What advantage does your approach have over your competitors?

GS: The fact that we do not overly favor any single technical tool or study makes us different from our competitors. We follow a holistic approach and wait patiently for multiple technical triggers to join hands before giving out a recommendation. This has helped us stay on the right side of things. The markets are dynamic; they continuously evolve, so using all available technical tools together is important.

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association’s digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association’s front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and various communication...

In Memory of Tony Tabell

Anthony (Tony) Tabell, 88, founding member and third President of the CMT Association, died peacefully on Monday, April 27, 2020. A lifelong student of the market, Tabell followed in the footsteps of his father, as well as his great-uncle, the legendary Richard D. Wyckoff.

He joined Walston & Co. in 1954 and became the director of technical research in 1965. In 1970, he left Walston to form Delafield, Harvey, Tabell in Princeton, NJ, where he continued to consult with institutions and provided research input to investment advisory operations. When Delafield, Harvey, Tabell merged with United States Trust Company in 1992, he became senior vice president of U.S. Trust of New Jersey. Tabell began applying computers to technical research in the late 1950s and headed one of the first computer installations devoted solely to technical analysis. He was a founding member of the CMT Association (then Market Technicians Association), serving as its president from 1975 to 1976 and as a member of its board of directors until his retirement in 1993.

Within the CMT Association, he is known for his long-time support. From serving as President to editor of the Journal of Technical Analysis to supplying data (then a very scarce commodity) to young academics (such as Dr. Andrew Lo) who wanted a better understanding of technical work and how it related to Behavioral Finance, Tony was always available to help. As Walter Deemer recently recounted, “He left many legacies. Perhaps one of the most enduring was the MTA Seminar (now Symposium).” He came up with the idea as the MTA President; the first one was held in Williamstown, MA in the spring of 1976.

At the same time, his weekly Tabell letter was well read by many of the other best technicians. Here Tony continued the tradition begun by his father in 1944 of writing a one-page weekly market comment on a legal-size blue sheet of paper.  All 48 years of these letters (over 2,700) are available for your review on a remarkable website http://tabellmarketletter.com/. In the 13 years I worked for Tony, I was always impressed by the way he formulated the entire market letter in his head and then dictated it to his secretary. While the tools of the trade have changed dramatically, markets continue their relentless process of price discovery. I am sure Tony would have loved to be writing his letter as he watched the market of today.

Here is a link to the obituary from his local paper: http://www.towntopics.com/wordpress/category/obituaries/. Scroll down on that page to see it.

Contributor(s)

Ken Tower, CMT

Ken Tower, who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the CEO of Quantitative Analysis Service, Inc (QAS). Ken joined QAS in 2008 after a brief foray into asset management and five years as chief market strategist with Charles Schwab &...

Remembering Ken Safian

Longtime member Kenneth Safian, president of Safian Investment Research, passed away on April 9, 2020, at age 83.

Ken was a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He started his career at Dreyfus & Co. where the legendary Jack Dreyfus served as his early mentor. Ken served as a director of the NY Society of Security Analysts, as a member of the National Association of Business Economists, and on the Executive Committee of Edward Jones and Co. He was a major shareholder and investment policy director for Regent Investor Services, which managed $3 billion and was sold in the early 1990s to Alliance Capital.

Below is an excerpt from his obituary at legacy.com.

Ken was a financial analyst and asset manager who, with his partner Ken Smilen, pioneered the Dual Market Principle – the concept of breaking the equity market into growth and cyclical stocks. His analysis, prescient in its accuracy and widely read by investors, market forecasters, and lawmakers, was often cited in Barron’s, New York Magazine, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.

A proud graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, Ken was an obsessive workaholic who often clocked 12-hour days. He worked just as hard on his family and friendships, which he valued greatly. Ken’s best friend was his older brother, Chet; he also stayed in close contact with his college buddies.

Ken experienced tragedy that he always carried with him: the loss of his beloved son, Billy, in 1987 at the age of 21. Ken found solace, true love, and companionship with Naomi, his second wife, who he always said made him the luckiest person in the world. Ken’s joy was spending time with his large, extended family at his home in the Berkshires.

Known in the family for his storytelling and salty language, Ken would often give inspirational speeches on holidays and other family occasions. He loved sharing lessons, and always emphasized the “great, great pleasure” he got from seeing others “growing and accomplishing things in life.”

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Remembering Jim Schmidt

Jim Schmidt, owner and publisher of Timer Digest, passed away on April 21. Those of us who hail from the southern California area know his voice well, as Richard Saxton at Channel 22 television in Los Angeles used to interview him on air on a weekly basis.

Excerpted from the April 27 edition of Timer Digest: Jim’s career began with a major Wall Street firm as a broker-trainee, where he eventually rose the position of Vice Chairman. Upon retirement, he purchased Timer Digest to pursue his interest in the community of professional market analysts. We have been fortunate beneficiaries of his boundless optimism, keen sense of humor and business expertise.

The following is excerpted from his obituary on legacy.com.

A longtime resident of Greenwich, he was born on July 14, 1932 in Columbus, Ohio. He attended the University of Hawaii while serving in the U.S. Army. After his discharge from the service, he continued his education at The Ohio State University and worked in sales and management positions over a seven-year period with local automobile dealerships. In 1961, he joined the Columbus office of Paine, Webber, Jackson & Curtis as a broker-trainee where he became one of the firm’s top producers.

He was promoted successively before a transfer to manage the firm’s Chicago office and its surrounding region. While there, he was appointed Senior Vice President, named to the PaineWebber Board of Directors, an Allied Member of the New York Stock Exchange, and was also named to the NASD Business Conduct Committee.

In 1981, he became Vice Chairman and Director of the Fixed Income Division in charge of Government, Corporate, Municipal, and Mortgage-backed Bond Trading, Preferred Stock Trading, and Municipal Investment Banking. He served as Chairman of the Board of PaineWebber Real Estate Securities Co. in addition to Board membership of several PaineWebber Mutual Funds.

In 1985, he moved to a consulting role as part of his transition to retirement and pursuit of other business activities. He purchased Timer Digest, a financial newsletter, in 1987 to fulfill a career-long interest in the community of professional market analysts.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Minnesota Chapter Speaker Summary

The Twin Cities Chapter of the CMT held a virtual meeting on April 21 in accordance with Minnesota guidelines for social distancing during the pandemic.

The guest speaker was Mark Newton, CMT, President and Founder of Newton Advisors LLC.  Newton Advisors has provided technical analysis subscription services to clients since 2016. Mark has more than 25 years on the buy and sell side, including stints at a hedge fund, Morgan Stanley, and as an options market maker at the CBOE.

The last few weeks have seen a sharp drop and rebound in equities.  Mark highlighted some important warning signals prior to the drop, including:

  1. very low put/call ratios,
  2. weakening momentum as the market reached new highs,
  3. divergence in the McClellan Summation Index,
  4. divergences in February between the S&P 500 at new highs but not small-caps/mid-caps/equal weight indexes
  5. a breakdown in Treasury yields.

The divergence in Treasury Yields can be seen in the chart below: Treasuries yields and equities are moving in tandem from August-December 2019. Starting mid-December stocks kept climbing while Treasury yields started to drop.

Mark sees the recent sharp upswing in equities as a rally in the context of a bear market.  He highlights technical positives, such as a short-term uptrend, strength in technology and healthcare sectors, and subdued sentiment. Technical negatives include weakening breadth and momentum, weakness in financials, energy, and transportation, and time-cycle negative factors such as election and decennial year tendencies.

Breadth and momentum weakness has appeared as a narrowing of the rebound into large cap growth stocks, and lagging performances during the rebound by various small- and mid-cap indices. Semiconductors have been strong on the rebound, but weakness in bond yields caused financials to drop sharply.

Although this market has looked like the 1929 crash in some ways, Mark’s comparisons indicate that equities are tracking stronger than we did in 1929.

Treasuries yields have broken sharply lower and remain in a negative trend. The VIX remains elevated while investor sentiment is neutral.

The US Dollar has been strong, but especially against Latin American currencies like the Brazilian Real. Emerging market equities have also shown weakness as evidenced by the EEM lagging the SPX, NDX, and other developed markets.

Commodities have been sinking as measured by the CCI. Crude oil especially has been weak and looks like it will stay lower for longer. In precious metals, gold is bullish but silver has been diverging.

Mark spent some time discussing cycles. Students of Fibonacci ratios and time cycles will find the AAPL charts below interesting.

Mark illustrates how the prior major move in AAPL from 1/28/16-10/3/18 lasted 979 days, and the duration of the 1/3/19-1/17/20 rally was 379 days, or ~38.2% the length of the first rally. Meanwhile, the 161.8% projection of the prior rally would target a top around $322. Fibonacci time and price cycles helped identify a potential turning point in AAPL.

Mark left us with these takeaways: (1)  Study sentiment and cycles, (2) equities seem to be stalling out, (3) elevated fear measures will prevent the market from quickly returning to new lows, (4) a 16-24 month bear market appears to have started in February 2020, and (5) one should be highly diversified, tactical, and short-term in decision making due to the volatility.

Contributor(s)

Mahesh Johari, CFA

Mahesh Johari is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. He holds degress in mathematics and economics from the University of Illinois and the University of Arizona.

Public Service Announcement: Pure Gobbledygook

In the past, I have given seminars on how we technicians should write for and speak to the media. The emphasis was on plain language and, if jargon was required, it should be accompanied by plain language explanations.

Here is something you all should never do when you write your market letters or talk to your clients. This is real market commentary put out by a real professional market pundit.

“The daily Fully Long/Fully Short gave us a “Sell Strength” signal Thursday and we have a “Best Fade” sell signal implying weakness by Tuesday. The thing is, we have a new BUY signal from the FL/FS 1-day. The chop we got really doesn’t fulfill the predicted move and we could still have some weakness on Monday, since there are profits to take. I’m not expecting too much downside, however Too much skepticism, thank goodness.”

I left in the weird capitalizations and botched punctuation but the biggest sin is the heaping helping of waffle with a side of jargon. It is no wonder many journalists don’t return our calls.

Don’t do this.

Really. Don’t.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Member Interview with Jim Erdmeier

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I am a prop trader specializing in equity index futures. I trade on a short-term, intraday basis using technicals and order flow. In addition, I am currently the co-Chair of the CMT Association Chicago chapter.

How did you get there?

I got started as a prop trader by finding a posting on LinkedIn. I then switched firms twice and ended up where I am now. The first firm I really traded at was called Tower Hill Trading. I traded equities there and led the morning meeting group in which we went over technicals and news that might be affecting the market that day. After they shut down, I went on to Topstep Trader, where I traded futures. From there, I joined Helios Trading Partners, where I currently am. I trade remotely from home, mostly in Nasdaq futures, although once in a while I will look at other markets. I like working remotely because it allows me to have a flexible schedule so I can devote time to studying, family, etc.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

I never really had a mentor. The former head trader at one firm at which I worked was very influential in showing me the psychological aspects of trading, but I wouldn’t call him a mentor. Most of what I learned was from reading Market Wizards and other trading books.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

The classic Technical Analysis of Stock Trends was the first book I read on charts. I also really like Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

Spending time with my wife and dogs, running and exercising, and I am also a full-time student getting my (late) degree in finance.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

A trader I worked with before told me about the Association. I then started following some CMTs on Twitter and finally decided to go after the designation myself. The guy who initially told me about the CMT program never went through with it, but I am very grateful that I did. It required me to really learn a lot more about the discipline of technical analysis in order to pass the tests. I have also made many friends in the Chicago trading community as a result of our meetings.

What it the most useful benefit of membership for you?

The networking. I love being able to meet all of the people that come to our meetings. We have a really great community that attends our Chicago chapter meetings.

Contributor(s)

Jim Erdmier, CMT

Jim Erdmier, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, has been trading privately and institutionally for 10 years in equities, FX, and futures. He is pursuing a degree in Finance and Computer Science at DePaul University. Jim is Co-Chair of the...

The Sheridan Story

Together, members and friends of the Minnesota Chapter of the CMT Association and the CFA Society of Minnesota are matching all donations to The Sheridan Story, up to $500,000.

The Sheridan Story works to fight child hunger in Minnesota by filling the gaps to food access that children face during weekends, summers and extended breaks through school and community partnerships. With statewide school closures, The Sheridan Story has been urgently filling the largest food gap our community has faced. Since the coronavirus crisis began, weekly production has increased by 400% to provide 100,000 meals a week to children and families and over a million meals through the end of the school year.

The need is expected to continue throughout the summer. They need our help to prepare hundreds of thousands more meals to continue meeting the needs through the summer months. To learn more visit www.thesheridanstory.org/coronavirus.

The following link is a short video explaining their story. The Sheridan Story’s Urgent Response to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Right now, we’re combining our efforts to make a local impact on child hunger. As of Friday May 8th the two organizations have raised $174,378 of the $500,000 to support the Sheridan Story in fighting child hunger. Today, we call on our wider network of members and friends to help fight child hunger. Every dollar you donate will be doubled. Please donate today to double your impact and help keep this essential work going so that children continue to have a nutritious food source through the summer.

Contributor(s)

Barbara Terry

Barbara Terry is the CMT Association’s volunteer coordinator, based in New York. She has close to 20 years of experience in large-scale project management and account management roles, and is an invaluable resource for the CMT Association’s event planning team.  Barbara holds...

Hurst Time Cycle event with Ashish Kyal, CMT

Ashish Kyal, CMT, held a training event in April on the topic of combining Hurst’s time cycles with Elliott Wave theory for better strategies.

Ashish noted Hurst’s principal suggestion that there are certain standard cycles which are universal and can be applied to any asset class. Although many cycle analysts often complain that cycles vanish without giving prior indication, this can be attributed to the interaction of different cycles of varying magnitude. Ashish discussed how to sum up composite time cycles by identifying smaller and larger cycles that may be acting on prices at the same time.

In combination with Elliott Wave theory, time cycles can help traders forecast trends and predict plausible inflection points. During complex corrective patterns, identifying the maturity of the trend at hand becomes much more difficult. Hurst’s time cycles can shed some light here: being aware that a probable bottom will form, or being able to spot the previous cyclical tops, provides important context for traders revising an option strategy.

By invoking Elliott Wave theory to forecast price and time cycles to identify trend reversals, Ashish concluded that we can compile a holistic view of an entire trade setup, even though Elliott Wave price forecasts remain relatively independent of time cycles.

Contributor(s)

Ashish Kyal, CMT

Ashish Kyal, is the Founder of Waves Strategy Advisors and Ashish Kyal Trading Gurukul. He is the Author of Effective Trading in Financial Markets using Technical Analysis.  His articles have appeared in newsletters of CMT Association, International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Jay Thakkar, CMT, Vice President & Head of Equity Research at Marwadi Shares and Finance Ltd

Matthias Neubrand, Conseiller Gestion de Fortune at Banque Cantonale de Fribourg

Christopher Cain, CMT, U.S. Quantitative Equity Strategist at Bloomberg LP

Akshay Chinchalkar, CMT, Electronic Trading Solutions Workflow Specialist at Bloomberg LP

Aazan Habib, CFA, CMT, Technical Analyst at Paradigm Capital

While working from home due to COVID-19, please take a few minutes to update your information at the CMT Association website.

Chapter Meetings: New Format

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its varying effects on in-person gatherings around the world, our chapter meetings have shifted to an online-only format. All chapter meetings will be held virtually on the GoToWebinar platform for the duration of this impact, and attendance will be open to anyone in the CMT community who wishes to tune in. Everyone’s safety is of paramount importance to us, and we are proud to invest in the infrastructure necessary to maintain our professional network and community during this time.

CMT

Registration is open for the December 2020 test administration. Early registration is until June 1. Level I & II exams will take place December 1-15, and the Level III exam on December 3.

If you need assistance registering or scheduling your exam, please email admin@cmtassociation.org.

If you have completed the CMT Level III exam or are presently registered for the exam and have the necessary professional work experience, don’t forget to apply for the Professional Member status.

If you have any questions about the Professional Membership process, please forward your questions to admin@cmtassociation.org.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in April 2020.

  • Justin Anderson
  • Alok Bansal
  • Sebastien Bernier
  • Alexander Campbell
  • Victor Campos
  • Yu-Hung Cheng
  • David Cimini
  • Jared Coffin
  • Timothy Delaney
  • Tyler Denholm
  • Eugene Feldman
  • David Hawes
  • Shing-Ching Jiang
  • Andy Lai
  • Sean Letcher
  • Andrew Mitola
  • Sean Ring
  • Jason Rodrigues
  • Kamal Krishna Saha
  • Eddie Khang Trinh
  • Joseph Vecernik
  • Andrew Wells
  • Philip Wu

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.