Technically Speaking, March 2021

With the vaccine roll-out in full swing, we can truly see the light at the end of the tunnel. For those of us in the colder Northern climates, the pending Spring is double good news since we’ve been cooped up inside our own homes. Who cannot wait to go to their favorite restaurant and not have to wear a parka?

The downside? Now we have to shed those pandemic pounds so we can wear more than sweat pants. I think I’ll take that.

Since mid-February, the markets have finally been interesting. Tech investors saw a “correction” while at the very same time portions of the rest of the market were at all-time highs. Gold is in the tank but oil is at multi-month highs. Remember last year when it went negative? Fun times – not. And have you seen copper?

Then, of course, there is all that debt out there. Liquidity … until the piper shows up for payment.

On a more somber note, over the past few weeks we’ve lost three great people and assets to the Association. Les Williams was a model of involvement, with participation and leadership in many areas in the Association over the years. Not only that, he was a genuinely nice guy and his signature adorns the CMT charter hanging on my wall. Bernadette Murphy, who was known to greater Wall Street as a leader for decades, was instrumental in legitimizing technical analysis as a true investment discipline. Younger members may not know of her, but they should. Memorials for both of these great people are in this month’s edition, and this month’s photo archive features a few shots of them. We’ve also got a brief tribute to Bill Sharp, co-founder and past President of the CSTA – the technical society in Canada.

This month’s member interview is with Michael Gayed CFA, who is a multiple winner of the Dow Award and awards from other groups. Walter Deemer, a now-retired technical analysis veteran, has put decades of his writings and analysis online for all to see. What was it like in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s? Just read his comments.

He also happens to be the subject of this month’s Fill the Gap, the CMT Association’s official podcast.

Of course, we have news from the Association, and President Scott Richter offers his thoughts about helping our colleagues out of any lingering career effects from the pandemic.

Don’t forget, you can submit articles for publication here. As long as they are about technical analysis or the business (not forecasts) we want to see them. Yes, even from brand new analysts. Write something. How do you think I, a physics major in college, got to be a columnist and editor? I wrote – a lot. Now it is your turn.

We want your photos, too. Book reviews, software reviews, thoughts on regulation, anything that members would find useful or interesting relating to technical analysis.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President’s Letter

Focus on Other Members – the Case for Camaraderie in Personal Recovery Post-COVID

This month’s message is short and to...

Read More

In Memory of Bernadette Bartels Murphy

Past President and pioneer technical analyst Bernadette Murphy, CMT, passed away March 3 at the age of 86. Bernadette was...

Read More

In Memory of Les Williams

Long-time member John Leslie (Les) Williams, CMT, passed away March 1 at age 77, possibly from health issues related to...

Read More

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Episode 3: Walter Deemer – Streaming Now

Join the CMT Association for a conversation with Walter Deemer, who discusses his...

Read More

Walter Deemer’s Archives Now Online

I downsized significantly after I retired in 2016, as there just wasn’t any room in the new place for the...

Read More

Job Opportunity at Investopedia

Investopedia is looking for an experienced editorial leader to captain our team of trading and investing editors and writers. We...

Read More

Member Interview with Michael Gayed, CFA

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I’m the Portfolio Manager of the ATAC Rotation Fund (Ticker: ATACX) and the...

Read More

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures, just to offer a glimpse of in-person events and people...

Read More

In Memory of Bill Sharp

This memoriam was excerpted from the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts website.

William Morris Sharp died February 8, 2021...

Read More

Register for the Virtual Behavioral Finance Seminar on March 20th

The Los Angeles Chapter of the CMT Association welcomes you to our next event on Saturday, March 20, 2021.  We have...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on their new positions:

...
Read More

President’s Letter

Focus on Other Members – the Case for Camaraderie in Personal Recovery Post-COVID

This month’s message is short and to the point: help someone in our ranks that needs help due to the impacts of COVID-19. Consider being a resource to those that have not fared well during the crisis of 2020-21, even if it is just passing along a job lead or outsourcing a project. With the global recovery starting to gain traction, you may be able to leverage its strength into helping someone get back on their feet again!

What do I mean by this?

While many people have done very well in this volatile time, there are still many that struggle due to COVID impacts. Some have lost employment, some have not participated in market gains (stocks, crypto, housing, or otherwise), some have encountered mental health issues, and some have lingering physical health issues from the coronavirus infection.

Well, what can you do to help others in our Association?

There are many things you can do:

Be aware and observant of those that are in need of help. Remember, not everyone wants help. Some are bashful, shy, or too embarrassed to ask for help, so don’t force it.

Listen. Sometimes the simplest acts of kindness can be uplifting to someone in need. Don’t try to solve the problem – just listen.

Ask for permission to help. Like trading, watch for a valid signal. When you have an affirmative signal, dig in, be supportive, and take action.

Consider all options. Being a multi-faceted resource for the person you’re helping can be invaluable. You might help with employment opportunities, possible consulting gigs, and even other referral sources. Sometimes the first step leads to limited progress, but the following step can be a breakthrough for someone!

Lastly, be an accountability buddy. Check in periodically and follow up on progress. Getting back on one’s feet can be tough – especially with tough setbacks like COVID – so provide support when you can to get someone past their sticking points.

Why is all of this important at all?

Well, everyone needs some help now and then. Life happens. We all tend to stumble at one time or another and need some support. Moreover, the best way to get moving after a setback is to leverage the contacts and friends you have in a non-employer network, such as the CMT Association. We have a great group of individuals here. They are a helpful and compassionate group, as well. After viewing this organization for over 20 years, I’ve been humbled by the number of times I’ve seen our members help other members, consult with other members, employ other members, and guide members forward. Let’s keep it going. If you see the need, please step up. In that act of giving, we all receive and move forward!

I wish you good investing and trading.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

In Memory of Bernadette Bartels Murphy

Past President and pioneer technical analyst Bernadette Murphy, CMT, passed away March 3 at the age of 86. Bernadette was the first female President of the CMT Association (one of only two) and many say she was the “real power behind the throne.” Not only that, she helped to change the entire history of modern technical analysis.

After the horrors of 9/11, several CMT members met at Bernadette’s office in December to correct that year’s CMT examinations, for which she was in charge. When we got into her office, she immediately took Ralph Acampora aside, sat him down at her desk and while standing over him, she pointed her finger in his face and like a true Momma-san, she told him what he had to do right away.

“Ralph, you must listen to me. I insist that you outsource the CMT examination to a professional examination firm like the CFA does, because our examinations are too important to be handled by volunteers. We need these tests to be created psychometrically.” He did as she asked, and in 2002, our examinations were the first to be overseen by professional exam creators.

How absolutely timely she was, because just two years later, when Ralph and David Krell met the head of the New York Stock Exchange in January 2004, that individual insisted that our exams had to be psychometrically done before we could continue any discussions about our members being exempt from taking Series 86 and Series 87 examinations, a la the Sarbanes/Oxley Law.

Few people really know what Bernadette did for all of us but they should.

Bernadette Bartels Murphy was born on City Island, New York and had a long and varied career on Wall Street. Notable positions included Senior Vice President, Shaw & Company 1965-1986 and Executive Director of the strategies and selections division at M. Kimelman & Company, since 1986. Many people will also remember her as a panelist on Wall St. Week with Louis Rukeyser she was also one of Bob Nurock’s “Elves.” The Elves created the main indicator used by the program to forecast the market every week. She retired from Kimelman and Baird in 2015, as a Managing Director.

She was President of the Finance Women’s Association (1973-1974), President of the International Society of Financial Analysts 1986-1988, President of the CMT Association 1977-1978, Chair of the Financial Analysts Federation 1988, and President of the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) 1984-1985. Susan Herera from CNBC called Bernadette “The Queen of Charts” in her book “Women Of The Street: Making It On Wall Street in the World’s Toughest Business.” In addition, Bernadette was especially proud of being a founding member and governor of AIMR, which is today known as the CFA Institute.

Technical Analysis runs in the family! Bernadette was also the aunt of Mary Ann Bartels, who was Chief Technical Market Analyst at Merrill Lynch and later Head of the Research Investment Committee (RIC) and ETF Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Contributor(s)

Ralph Acampora, CMT

Ralph Acampora, CMT is a pioneer in the development of market analytics. He has a global reputation as a market historian and a technical analyst, providing unique insights on market timing and related investment strategy issues to a wide audience within the...

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Fred Meissner, CMT

Fred Meissner, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is the founder and President of The FRED Report. His professional career spans 34 years in the investment business. Fred has a multifaceted background encompassing market analysis, trading strategies/portfolio management and business...

MaryAnn Bartels

Mary Ann Bartels is a recognized and an award winning strategist that spent 35-years on Wall Street analyzing and communicating trends in the economy, equities, bonds, commodities and exchange traded funds. Ms. Bartels held many roles at Merrill Lynch and Bank of...

In Memory of Les Williams

Long-time member John Leslie (Les) Williams, CMT, passed away March 1 at age 77, possibly from health issues related to his service in Vietnam. He was very active in the CMT Association, including serving as Treasurer and chairing the Ethics Committee, the Nomination Committee and the Accreditation Committee (editor’s note – his signature is on my own CMT certificate). He also ran his own portfolio management firm, Williams Capital Management, based in Bedford, Texas.

I got to know Les quite well as we worked together writing and grading the CMT exams. He loved technical analysis and actively used it in his investment management process. He also loved the Market Technicians’ (CMT) Association and enjoyed writing and grading the exams. It was his way to give back to the organization that gave him so much.

Outside of the CMT exam, Les and I would talk every 2-3 weeks about the markets and our lives. Les was a good friend and just a wonderful person. What made the CMT so special to me was the people who worked to improve the Association and the relationships that we developed over the years. Les will be missed.

We were fortunate to have an interview with Les in the July 2019 edition of Technically Speaking; some details he shared in that interview appear below.

Les said he was a self-taught technician with influence from John Murphy’s work. He also lists a who’s-who of technicians he also followed, most of whom were CMT members. He enjoyed ballroom dancing, travel and reading. While in the military many years ago, he flew a light observation helicopter on his first assignment in Vietnam and the UH-1 (Huey) on his second.

As mentioned, Les was very active in the Association, claiming to have been proselytized by Ralph Acampora and John Brooks. He enjoyed networking and attending the annual seminars.

Contributor(s)

Brad Herndon, CFA, CMT

BIO COMING

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Fill the Gap: The Official Podcast of the CMT Association

Episode 3: Walter Deemer – Streaming Now

Join the CMT Association for a conversation with Walter Deemer, who discusses his current and historical view over more than 50 years on Wall St. on the latest installment of Fill the Gap, which brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast to explore their investment philosophy, process and decision-making tools. As investors attempt to navigate the markets during a period of excessive speculation in 2021, Walter’s perspective is invaluable.

He has put decades of his market writing on the web for all to see and writes about it in this very issue of Technically Speaking.

Subscribe and listen to the podcast by following the links on our website, or subscribe directly at https://cmtassociation.buzzsprout.com/.

Tune in on your favorite listening service – each monthly episode is released on the first Friday of the month and will be available on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever podcasts are found.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood, CMT

Tyler Wood serves as Managing Director of CMT Association with the aim of elevating investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. He is a seasoned business...

Walter Deemer’s Archives Now Online

I downsized significantly after I retired in 2016, as there just wasn’t any room in the new place for the 2600+ memos I had written during the past fifty years which were stored in 49 three-ring binders and a file drawer. I just couldn’t bear to throw them out, though, so I had them scanned onto a flash drive. (Some came out better than others.) Voila; my lifetime of work now fit into the palm of my hand.

Later, Tony Tabell’s family created a website to archive the 2700 market letters he and his father had written between 1944 and 1992. I thought: “Hey; I’ve already got my memos scanned, so maybe it’d be fairly easy to set up an archive for them.” Thanks to a helpful web host, the project was completed in February. It resides at https://deemermarketmemos.com/.

The archive contains comments from the 1960’s, which were done at Gerry Tsai’s Manhattan Fund, and from 1970 to July 7, 1980, while I was at Putnam Management. (Those lists are not complete.) Then, from July 23, 1980 through the end of 2016, I published weekly memos and special interim updates for institutional clients through Deemer Technical Research. That list is complete, with some really, really good ones and some that are, frankly, a bit embarrassing. Most include charts of individual stocks, sectors, and market indicators.

I created the archive so people could see what the market environment looked like to a market analyst at the time, and hope it proves useful and instructive.

Contributor(s)

Walter Deemer

Walter Deemer is a founding member and past president of the CMT Association who began his Wall Street career in July 1963 as a Merrill Lynch research trainee. In April 1964, Walter moved to Merrill Lynch’s Market Analysis Department, where he worked...

Job Opportunity at Investopedia

Investopedia is looking for an experienced editorial leader to captain our team of trading and investing editors and writers. We seek an accomplished senior editor with a deep background in investing, trading, and market analysis, who will excel in managing the creation of best-in-class news and improving existing educational content. The ideal candidate is hyper-organized and process-oriented with a passion for helping people understand the financial markets and how those movements impact their investments.

You will be responsible for overseeing all of our trading and investing content, which includes news production, and the ongoing maintenance and improvement of our existing library of terms, articles, and educational material. The content you oversee must serve our mission of simplifying complex financial information and decisions to give our readers confidence to manage every aspect of their financial life. The ideal candidate will have 8+ years of experience with analysis of financial markets, brokers, financial advisors, and fintech.

Since Investopedia was launched in 1999, we’ve made it our mission to simplify complex financial information and decisions for our readers, giving them the confidence to manage every aspect of their financial life. Our millions of users come to us from all over the world and from all walks of life. Some are learning about money and investing for the first time, while others are experienced investors, business owners, professionals, financial advisors, and executives looking to improve their knowledge and skills. No matter who they are, we are here to help.

Investopedia is a Dotdash brand. Those brands help over 100 million users each month find answers, solve problems, and get inspired. Dotdash is among the largest and fastest growing publishers online, and has won over 50 awards in the last year alone, including Digiday’s 2020 Publisher of the Year.

Interested candidates are invited to apply at the following link: https://www.dotdash.com/careers/?p=job%2FoOPJefwk

Contributor(s)

Marianna Tessello

Marianna Tessello served as the CMT Association’s digital producer from 2018 until 2021. She was responsible for the management of most of the association’s front-end digital assets during that time, including social media production, current website information and updates, and various communication...

Member Interview with Michael Gayed, CFA

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I’m the Portfolio Manager of the ATAC Rotation Fund (Ticker: ATACX) and the ATAC US Rotation ETF (Ticker: RORO) at Toroso Investments, LLC. As the architect of both strategies, my focus is on conditions that favor risk-on and risk-off for stocks using historically proven leading indicators of volatility. Separate from my work at Toroso, I’m also the Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (www.leadlagreport.com), which is my premium research service designed for tactical traders and asset allocators looking to anticipate stock market crashes, corrections, and bear markets with my award-winning white papers at the core of the work.

How did you get there?

I have family history when it comes to the business of investing. My father worked alongside Bob Farrell, legendary technician at Merrill Lynch in the late 1980s, and started his own investment advisory firm in the 1990s and hedge fund in 2000. I grew up with my mom, dad, and Mr. Market every night at the dinner table. When my father passed away in 2008, I was at a fork in the road career-wise.

Lehman’s demise had just happened, I had no name, no credibility, and I was not of age to take over what my father had built. Everything folded. I thought I might get my MBA, but the same day I got accepted into Cornell, I got a job offer to work at a billion dollar plus family office in Geneva. I managed a portion of the family’s net worth, but after about a year realized I wanted more than just one client. I then joined Pension Partners where I began working on the core of what would eventually be the strategy behind the ATAC (A TACtical) approach to risk-on and risk-off investing.

I began writing and got a major crash “right” in 2011, which I was able to use to get media attention. This in turn resulted in my analysis being featured on Marketwatch. I started getting heavily into Twitter (@leadlagreport) and LinkedIn to keep my name out there, while co-authoring five award-winning white papers along the way, each of which I’ve presented all over the country at local CFA and CMT Chapters. I believe I got lucky and worked hard to do so through continuous effort, even though I largely operated in a cycle that was the complete opposite of risk-on/risk-off post QE3 in 2013.

Who was an early mentor in your career?

My father, unequivocally. He wrote two books on markets, one on the Crash of 1987, and the other on Intermarket Analysis and Investing. I read both books multiple times at a very young age. I saw the ups and downs, highs and lows, and perseverance needed to survive during the tough and lean years everyone in this business inevitably goes through.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

I’m biased, but my father’s 1990 book Intermarket Analysis and Investing was critical to my development. One single page on the Utilities sector ended up defining my life and thinking, as one of the risk-on/off intermarket signals I track. I republished the book in his honor in 2013.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

I’m a musician for fun. I’ve written several songs which I’ve gotten professionally produced under the band name of Fortunate Fall. I think it’s really important to have a creative outlet, and for me it’s always been songwriting.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

It was really the 2014 Dow Award white paper I co-authored titled “An Intermarket Approach to Beta Rotation,” and the 2016 Dow Award paper “Leverage for the Long Run.” I’ve been a keynote speaker at nearly every CMT local chapter multiples times over the years, and always found attendees to be intellectually curious and great to be around. The organization has been instrumental to my development, not just in terms of support, but in terms of exposure and the people themselves.

What is the most useful benefit of membership for you?

Certainly has been being a 2x Dow Award winner. Contributing deep intermarket analysis and thoughts to the organization are something I’m incredibly proud of, alongside the miles and miles traveling across the US to present the findings of all my research.

Editor’s note: Don’t miss Michael’s presentation of his 2020 NAAIM Founders Award-winning paper: Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX in the November 2020 edition of Technically Speaking.

Contributor(s)

Michael Gayed, CFA

Michael A. Gayed is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, an investment management company specializing in ETF focused research, investment strategies and services designed for financial advisors, RIAs, family offices and investment managers. Prior to Toroso Investments, Michael was the Co-Portfolio Manager and...

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in pictures, just to offer a glimpse of in-person events and people in our organization.

If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that are relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment.

This month’s photos honor the two members we just lost, Bernadette Murphy and Les Williams.

In Memoriam

murphy williams pruden herndon

Pictured: Brad Herndon, Bernadette Murphy, Les Williams and Hank Pruden

Judging by the baby faces, this photo was likely taken about 20 years ago. Just a nice night out at Angelo’s restaurant in Little Italy (New York City). Supposedly there were more people than bottles of wine but who remembers?

Pictured: Helen Roth (Phil’s wife), Bernadette Murphy and Rosemary Acampora (Ralph’s wife)

After the SEC acceptance of the CMT exam in 2005, Ralph Acampora and Phil Roth held a formal dinner in Ralph’s apartment.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

In Memory of Bill Sharp

This memoriam was excerpted from the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts website.

William Morris Sharp died February 8, 2021 at the age of 83. Bill was a major contributor to the success of CSTA and one of the original 28 technical analysts who got together in 1984 to discuss and facilitate the founding of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. He became its third president in 1989. He was also President of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) from 2004 to 2006.

Bill, a.k.a. Willy, worked in the investment industry for 60 years, until retiring at age 80. An avid skier, paddler, musician, and National Geographic collector (every issue since 1952). Willy and Gail loved to travel for both work and pleasure; the paddling and outrigger adventures took them as far as the South Pacific, Cook Islands, Greece, Italy, France, Hungary, Hawaii, California, all over Canada.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Register for the Virtual Behavioral Finance Seminar on March 20th

The Los Angeles Chapter of the CMT Association welcomes you to our next event on Saturday, March 20, 2021.  We have the pleasure of John Nofsinger, Dave Keller, and Brian Brogan as our guest speakers.

You must register to attend this event.  Registration closes at 7:00 AM on Saturday, March 20, 2021.  You will receive an email with GoToWebinar instructions after registration closes on the day of event.

Owen Cupp
Los Angeles Chapter Chair

Brad Levin, CMT, CFP
Los Angeles North Chapter Chair


SPEAKERS
John R. Nofsinger, PhD
Interim Dean/Professor of Finance, University of Alaska

The Psychology and Biology of Investing
Behavioral finance explains actual behavior through psychological, cognitive, and emotional factors that often lead a person to biased, non-rational, financial decisions. What is the source of these behavioral biases? One answer is biology—sleep, health, hormones, genetics, emotions, cognitive decline, and more.

Dave Keller, CMT
Chief Market Strategist, StockCharts.com
Man vs. Machine: Are Humans Obsolete?
Over time the financial industry has transitioned from more qualitative to more quantitative forms of analysis. Many question whether quantitative methods will make traditional investment research obsolete, as investors search for the ever elusive perfect black box to curtail their emotions. I feel the pendulum will swing back to the qualitative, where investors are not replaced by computers, but instead investors will embrace quantitative methods and also focus on areas of research where humans have the advantage. Man vs. Machine becomes Man + Machine.

Brian Brogan, CMT, MS, CEPA, WFFA
Director, The Initiative for Family Business & Entrepreneurship, Saint Joseph’s University

REGISTRATION
Complimentary for members & Students
$15.00 for non-members

LOCATION
On-line Meeting
Utilizing GoToWebinar

You are eligible for three (3) Continuing Education Units for attending. Please visit our Events Calendar to register.

Contributor(s)

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following member on their new positions:

Samuel Beaudry, CFA, CMT, Planificateur Financier, Analyste & Représentant – iA Gestion Privée de Patrimoine
David Lundgren, CMT, CFA, Strategic Consultant at Interlink Markets
Dan Shkolnik, CMT, Director, Portfolio Strategy & Trading at Quintessence Wealth

CMT

When registering for a CMT exam, please make sure that the name in your profile matches the legal ID you will be presenting at the Prometric test center. If the names do not match, Prometric will not allow you to take the exam.

If you have already registered or scheduled your exam and need to adjust your name, please email admin@cmtassociation.org. Name adjustments must be made at least one month before the exams begin.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in February 2021.

  • Antonio Escandon-Lizaur
  • Yi Fu Lee
  • Michael Nauss
  • Jeffrey Smith

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.