Technically Speaking, June 2021

A lot of talk about the “new normal” of work fills the airwaves (and digital channels). How many companies are bringing employees back to the office? What will happen to all the supporting businesses around offices if people keep working from home? Is the economy heating up? Inflation? Can restaurants even fill out their staffs?

These are all questions for planners above my pay grade. What I do know is that prices for a lot of goods and services are higher now. This is but one factor we all have to keep in mind, even we technicians. As you all know, a falling dollar tends to make commodities more expensive. Lower commercial real estate demand might mean residential demand is growing, and with it, stocks catering to that segment. Do we still need Zoom? I hope not.

While we are not analyzing the market based on these fundamentals, we do use them to point us in the right direction where real analysis (technicals, of course) can take over. So, keep your eyes open and follow the money to see which asset classes will benefit and which will get hurt. Which companies will thrive, which will not and which ones may be on the road to recovery because they already figured out the “new normal.” Just because a style of technical analysis worked in the past does not mean it will always work the same way. Sell in May, anyone?

As editor, this month my heart is full. As you will read below, we have acquired a treasure trove of old newsletters which will provide a lot of materials for the current version. Old photos; yes, we have them. And we will start with a reprint of a piece written by Dr. Van Tharp, a noted trading and investing coach. He goes beyond trading psychology and hits us over the head with the need for money management. It’s long but well worth the read.

We’ll more on to Association business, an announcement of the Euro Summit, and a review of the May virtual meeting of the Mumbai India chapter. Outgoing President Scott Richter has a few parting words as the new slate of officers takes over in a few weeks.

For those of us in the U.S., enjoy the summer as restrictions are lifted. For our colleagues in areas of the world that are still suffering, keep the faith, as this will one day end.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

President's Letter: Thank You for the Opportunity to Serve

Welcome to my last President’s Letter. Since I’m not one for long goodbyes, I’ll keep this brief.

Looking back to...

Read More

The CMT Historical Treasure Trove

I was not working at Lowry Research for very long when tragedy struck the firm. The owner, Joffre LeFevre, and...

Read More

Why Is It So Difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market?

This article originally ran in November 1997 edition of Technically Speaking.

Imagine playing a game for money in which marbles...

Read More

Mumbai Chapter Meeting Review

The Mumbai Chapter meeting was held virtually on Saturday, May 15, 2021 with six distinguished speakers:

  • Scott G. Richter,...
Read More

Join us at the European Summit: Global Themes for A Changing World

Join us at the 2021 European Summit on July 1 & 2. Featuring a slate of global thinkers and leading...

Read More

Virtual Event: Upcoming Webcast With NeuraVest

The CMT Association is excited to announce that JP Gravitt and Eric Davidson, CMT will be joining the Educational Web...

Read More

New Episode of Fill the Gap Podcast

The Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a conversation about the history of markets,...

Read More

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse into our past, and in-person...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Gustavo...
Read More

President's Letter: Thank You for the Opportunity to Serve

Welcome to my last President’s Letter. Since I’m not one for long goodbyes, I’ll keep this brief.

Looking back to 2018, I could not have anticipated or even imagined the many twists and turns that would be thrown at our organization! The good news is that we’ve survived, and in many instances thrived, during that time. I’ll let the critics hash out the absolute and relative success we’ve had. Or, you and I can hash it out at our next “in person” Symposium, whenever that may be. I would welcome seeing you then, and having that discussion!

Next, I would like to say thank you for the opportunity to serve the Association. It has been an honor. Please know that I am grateful to each and every one of you that I have had the pleasure to work with over the past three years as President. That would include our Board members, our Executive Director Alvin Kressler and our staff, members, affiliates, vendors, sponsors, and partners. A special thanks to Michael Kahn and Brett Villaume for their guidance and coaching in this space each month!

Lastly, and as usual with a living, breathing organization such as the CMT Association, there is always more work to do. To that end, I want to inform you – and assure you – that we have a solid Board of Directors, a strategic plan to evolve the organization, and a dedicated staff to execute it on a day-to-day basis.

I wish you all the best in your trading, investing and career. Leverage your time with and for the Association! Give back to others when you can!

Now – if you don’t mind, I’m going to exit, stage right, to the past President’s position. Blessings to all.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

The CMT Historical Treasure Trove

I was not working at Lowry Research for very long when tragedy struck the firm. The owner, Joffre LeFevre, and son-in-law of the late Paul Desmond, the firm’s former President, passed away at a fairly young age. While we continued to provide research to clients, the family knew that they did not want to carry on. They started to look for a buyer.
As the process unfolded, the Florida offices were downsized and that meant cleaning out years of accumulated materials, much of it of great interest to the CMT Association. We were also the “repository” for materials from Morgan Stanley and the legendary Bill Doane of Fidelity. I could not wait to dive into the collection, as I did not know it was even there before. The problem was that I was already home in New York, thanks to the pandemic.

Joffre’s father, Jacques LeFavre, an industry outsider, stepped in to keep the lights on and the bills paid. Thanks to prior discussions between Lowry and the CMT Association, led by George Schade and Dick Dickson, most of those materials were to be shipped to us in New York. I still did not know the extent of their contents and did not expect to learn about them until the materials found a home in NY and the pandemic eased, allowing us to find out.

Then, a large box appeared at my home. Inside were a few random items, such as several archival MTA journal CDs and the 2001 MTA Member Directory. There was even a copy of one of my own books.

But that was not the good stuff. There were two smaller boxes with Bill Doane’s stash of what looked like every Association newsletter. I have not yet catalogued them, but it looks like every edition from 2008 back though the mid-1980s, and a few going back to 1975.

Aside from the obvious abundance of material to repurpose in Technically Speaking going forward, it serves as an unofficial history of our Association. We can see who were the officers and Board members. We can read reviews of past Seminars and Symposiums, you know, the ones where we travelled to locations far and wide, but mostly to the west coast of Florida, where discussions at pool bars were frequent. And we can find articles about news and events of the day.

Considering the loss the Association suffered when our office in the North Tower fell, with pictures, book donations, letters and other records vanishing, these newsletters restore our history beyond the vague and not-so-vague memories held by our more seasoned members. For starters, we will re-learn how the office quickly set up shop in our storage facility in Woodbridge, NJ, where we conducted our business for a few years. Some of us recall all too well how the disk with Association membership and business files was quickly tossed into Shelley Lebeck’s purse as she made her way safely out of the Tower.

Over the coming months, I plan to re-run articles that are either of historical value or are still relevant today. You will see photos of some of your favorite technicians when they were still young’uns. And you might get a book idea from some of the reviews we used to run.

Needless to say, I am excited about all this. In time, these newsletters will make their way into the CMT office, where they will be stored. It also raises the point that if you are nearing retirement and have collections of materials that would be of interest to the Association, you should make arrangements now, or in your will, to get them to us. I only hope Bill Doane somehow knows about the unbelievable gift he gave us.

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Why Is It So Difficult for Most People to Make Money in the Market?

This article originally ran in November 1997 edition of Technically Speaking.

Imagine playing a game for money in which marbles are drawn out of a bag and then replaced. Sixty percent of the marbles are white. If one of the white marbles is drawn out, you win whatever you risked. The other forty percent are blue. If one of the blue marbles is drawn, then you lose whatever you risked. This game has an expectancy of 20 cents. That is, over a large number of trials, you’ll make 20 cents for every dollar you risk. That means it’s much better than any game you’ll ever play in Las Vegas. But what percentage of the people who play it make money?

I have introduced this game numerous times in talks that I’ve given and at seminars and conferences. Typically, we don’t play for real money, but the winner (i.e., the person who ends up with the most “money” after 50 trials) is given a prize. The results of a typical game are that one third of the audience ends up broke, another third of the audience loses money, and only a third of the audience makes money.

Ralph Vince, author of three books on money management, allowed 50 Ph.D.s who knew nothing about money management or statistics to play a game similar to the one described for 100 trials. They were not given any incentive for winning (which can cause stupid behavior). They were merely instructed to make as much money as they could playing the game. Guess how many of them made money? Only two, or 4%, made money!

Typically, except for going broke, there are as many different ending equities as there are people in the audience. Yet they all start out with the same amount of money and they all get the same trades (i.e., marbles). But. in the end, there are so many different results. Why? Poor money management and an undisciplined psychology. If people have trouble making money with a 60% marble system, what are their chances of making money in the market? Very slim!

There are only three critical factors to winning:

  1. A positive expectancy system,
  2. Money management, and
  3. Individual psychology.

All three factors tend to be neglected by the average trader. To illustrate why that occurs, I’ll use psychological biases to explain why people have problems with positive expectancy systems and money management, rather than treat psychology as a separate topic.

Traders Don’t Understand What a Positive Expectancy System Means

Problem I: The Need to be Right

Most of us grow up being exposed to an educational system that brainwashes us with the idea that you have to get 94-95% correct to be excellent. And if you can’t get at least 70% correct, you’re a failure. Mistakes are severely punished in the school system by ridicule and poor grades. Yet, it is only through mistakes that human beings learn.

Contrast that with the real world in which a .300 hitter in baseball gets paid millions. In fact, in the everyday world few people are close to perfect and most of us who do well are probably right less than half the time. Indeed, people have made millions on trading systems with reliabilities around 40%.

William Eckhard, in his marvelous interview in the book “New Market Wizards,” by Jack Schwager, says that the factor that most undermines the behavior of average trader is the overwhelming need to be right about the current trade. This one factor undoes most of us whenever we attempt to challenge the market.

Because of that factor, people are constantly looking for high probability trading systems; systems that make money 70% of the time or more. To find such systems, they are constantly looking for entry systems that produce such high reliability. If you teach such high probability entry systems at seminars, you’ll attract thousands of eager followers. You’ll only have to skim the subject of exits and money management in such a talk, because people think the secret is in the entries.

Unfortunately, if you really examine these high probability systems, you’ll notice the following:

1) The presentations go over well because they are illustrated with numerous best-case examples;

2) Exits are hardly mentioned except to state that you have to have a trailing stop; and

3) If you really put such systems to the test, the expectancy is not very good because most of them leave average losses that are bigger than the average gain.

Problem 2: We’re Conservative with Profits and Risky with Losses

The systems that do perform well tend to be systems with a reliability of around 40%, which have average gains that are much bigger than the average losses. Understanding and properly applying protective stops and profit taking exits is important to develop such systems. However, these exits are very difficult for the average person who tends to be risky when he or she is behind and conservative when he or she is ahead.

Let’s look at an example. Which would you prefer?

  1. A sure loss of $900 or
  2. A 95% chance of a $1,000 loss plus 5% chance of no loss at all?

Select either (1) or (2). Which do you pick?

Now let’s try one more. Which would you prefer 1) a sure gain of $900 or 2) a 95% chance of a $1,000 gain plus a 5% chance of no gain at all? Once again, select either (1) or (2). Most people would take the gamble in the first problem.  They would take the 95% chance of a $1,000 loss plus the 5% chance of no loss at all. Is that what you picked?

Let’s take a look at how that works out. If you multiply $1,000 times 0.95, you get an expectancy of $950. That means you’ve elected the worse expectancy, a loss of $950, just for the remote possibility of getting back to even. Yet what is the first part of the golden rule of trading? Cut your losses short.

What did you pick in the second problem? Most people pick the sure gain of $900. Yet if you look at the gamble, item 2, it gives you an expectancy of $950 ($1,000 * 95% = $950). But that goes against the way most people think. They’d rather take the sure profit than be risky when they are ahead. Yet, what is the rest of the golden rule of trading? Let your profits run.

Great trading systems with a high expectancy are formed with the proper use of exits. But when the proper use of exits goes against the grain of how we tend to think it is very difficult to develop a good system.

Problem 3: People tend to abandon low-probability, high expectancy systems when they do manage to come up with one

Unfortunately, high expectancy systems, once developed, are also the most difficult for people to follow. What is likely to happen to a 40% system, generating 350 trades each year, over a three-year period? Well, during those three years it will generate about 1,000 trades, and during those 1,000 trades, it will have a string of losses in the neighborhood of 15-16 in a row. I know of few people who would not abandon a system that has 15 losses in a row as being broken even though that many loses can be expected by chance during a sample of 1000 trades.

People Totally Neglect Money Management

Money management is that part of your trading system that tells you how much. It’s not that sexy. It doesn’t seem to give you control over the market, like your entry method. It simply tells you how much to risk on a given trade. Yet academic research has shown that asset allocation (another fancy word for how much) will account for over 90% of the variance of the performance of portfolio managers. You’ve already learned from the marble game that many people can lose money in a 60% system, just from very poor money management. So why is the appropriate use of money management such a problem?

Problem 4: The Gambler’s Fallacy

How can you lose money in a sixty percent system with a one-to-one payoff? In a sixty percent system, you are likely to have seven or eight losses in a row during 1,000 trials. But you could easily have five losses in a row in such a system during a 50-trial run. Let’s say that we are about to start such a streak and that you’ve adopted a strategy of betting 10% of your equity. For the sake of simplicity, let’s say your stake when the losing streak starts is $1,000. You begin by betting 10% or $100 and you hit the first loss. You now have $900 left. You decide to bet $90 and you have another loss. You now have $810 left. After the third loss, you decide to bet $81 and we have our third consecutive loss. Now you have $719 left.

At this point, your thought process might be the following; “We’ve had three losses in a row and we’re really due for a win now. After all, this is a 60% system. I’ll risk $300 on this one.” Now you get loss number four and you only have $419 left. You feel desperate. You are down almost 60% in just four trials. You think, “We have to have a winner now,” and you decide to risk another $300. Loss number five comes up and you are down to $119. You now have to make nearly 900% just to make up for the losses on the last five trials and your chances of doing so are very slim.

Some of you might be thinking, you should have waited until the five losses in a row and then bet $300. If that’s your thought process, you have the same problem as the original trader. It’s called the gambler’s fallacy. Your chances of losing on any given draw are 40%. They have nothing to do with what happened in the past. When you think that way, just as you bet $300, you’ll have the sixth straight loss.

Problem 5: Money Management is complex

The science of money management is every bit as complex as the art of entry into the market. Furthermore, since few people are interested in money management, the software vendors who sell system-related software have neglected it or ignored it entirely. As a result, if you want to practice sound money management in today’s world of computers, you must do it yourself on a spreadsheet. However, a colleague of mine is currently in the process of developing software to remedy this problem.

From my research and other sources, I know how a number of “market wizard” caliber traders function. They have good systems with a strong positive expectancy. But those systems are not much different than the kind of systems that the average person can get.  The difference between making a fortune in the markets, as most of them have done, and average performance is simply one of money management.  Great traders apply great money management to good systems and have the discipline to carry it out. Just read the book Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager. Every person interviewed talks about the importance of money management.

Several years ago, I spoke at a Market Wizards conference in San Francisco. One of the speakers, Ed Seykota, emphasized money management in his talk. He suggested to people that they calculate payoff vectors for their system and develop money management appropriate to those payoff vectors. By payoff vectors, he meant what percentage of your trades are 10:1 winners, what percentage are 5:1 winners, etc. Yet, when someone asked him, “How do you develop the appropriate money management to those vectors?” His response was to point to the side of his head and say, “Think.”

Most traders find that the simplest solution to money management is simply to trade one contract per so much equity. While this is one solution, for traders with small amounts of money (i.e., most traders), it amounts to no money management because it means that they effectively have to double their account equity before they can increase their risk.

Problem 6: Most traders don’t have enough money

In that same conference, Ed Seykota made the statement that anyone risking more than 3% of his or her equity on a given trade was probably a “gunslinger.” Now, your risk on a given trade is the amount of exposure you have on that trade; the difference between your entry price and your stop price. For example, if you enter in a gold position at $400 with a stop at $390, then your $10 stop represents a risk of $1,000. If you had an account of $25,000, then your risk for one contract would be 4%. You’d be called a gunslinger.

Most traders enter into the market with accounts of $10,000 or less.  They trade just about everything and all of their trades are very risky because their account size is too small. Sure, you can trade some agricultural markets with a $10,000 account. In fact, you can trade a lot of other markets if your stops are typically tight and your system is designed for tight stops. But most people who enter the market simply don’t have the money to do what they are trying to do.

Consequently, they typically don’t think about the most important factor in trading, the issue of how much, because they are already trading too much. If they do survive in the market, as their account begins to grow, they start thinking about the simplest form of money management.  “I now have $20,000 in my account; perhaps I should trade two contracts?”

What’s the Solution?

Each of the six problems I’ve covered stem from major psychological biases that shape our thinking. The first step in overcoming those problems lies in recognizing that they exist. For example, once you recognize that a key issue in successful trading is having a high expectancy system rather than a highly reliable system then you’ve come a long way in your search for the Holy Grail. You can start looking for exits that give you a high expectancy, rather than entry techniques that increase the reliability of your system.

Second, when you have a high-reliability system that gives you many trades, you’ll begin to realize that the key to achieving that expectancy is money management. If you know what you want to achieve as a trader (e.g., a high reward-to-risk ratio, low drawdowns, or a very high annual return rate, etc.), you can use money management to design a system that will achieve those objectives.

I’ve written a report on money management detailing three different equity models and nine different money management models giving a total of 27 different models. The report also touches on creative money management, showing just how much is possible in this area.  The key to the Holy Grail is in applying money management to a high expectancy system and in controlling yourself. When you realize this deep inside, you’ve taken a giant leap forward in your personal evolution as a trader.

Van K. Tharp, P.D is an internationally renowned investing and trading coach. He’s written a Peak Performance home study course for traders and investors; published a monthly newsletter and leads seminars. https://learn.vantharp.com/

Contributor(s)

Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Trading Coach Dr. Van K Tharp, is widely recognized for his best-selling book “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom” and his classic Peak Performance Home Study Course for traders and investors. Visit him at www.iitm.com for a free trading game or to...

Mumbai Chapter Meeting Review

The Mumbai Chapter meeting was held virtually on Saturday, May 15, 2021 with six distinguished speakers:

  • Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP – Scott is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM. Scott is also President of the Global Board of Directors, CMT Association.
  • Tim Hayes, CMT – Ned Davis Research Chief Global Investment Strategist.
  • Alvin Kressler – CEO and Executive Director of CMT Association
  • Mohit Handa, CMT – Technical Research Analyst with Beroe Consulting Pvt. Ltd.
  • Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA — Founder and Independent Technical Research Analyst, Gemstone Equity Research and Advisory Services.
  • Kush Ghodasara – Luv-Kush Finserve, a Gujarat Based Financial service house which deals into Research of Equity markets, Research Advisory and Financial Planning consultancy.

The opening remarks by Scott Richter mentioned the importance and relevance of Technical Analysis in the investment decision-making process. His advice to the professionals was to create a habit of continuous learning; considering this, he also emphasized the importance of learning about multiple asset classes. Scott highlighted the necessity of getting involved actively within the Association and with fellow members to learn and teach in order to make the professional journey enriching and fulfilling.

This was followed by a presentation by Timothy Hayes with the topic, “Secular Bull Reset in a Year of Recovery.” Through a wonderful presentation, Tim showed long-term bull and bear phases of the S&P 500 and showed how the secular bull phase that started in 2009 remains in place. He explained how asset classes and their annualized returns described secular trends. Tim highlighted that cyclical trends have always remained relatively bigger in bull phases.

While examining the global liquidity picture, Tim showed how excess liquidity fueled the bull trend and resisted a turnaround only when the deflationary pressures overweighed the sentiments. Speaking on valuation aspects, he pointed out that forward earnings were picking up in expectation of growth and recovery. As compared to backward earnings, the forward earnings made the equity valuation appear less expensive.

By comparing median earnings yields that were double the median bond yields, Tim observed that stocks remained better valued than bonds. He further observed that market breadth across global equities has been buoyant. This was reflected in the funds inflows to equity, which remained much stronger compared to inflows in bonds. He added that as long as real interest rates stayed negative, they would continue to support Gold prices, as well.

Gold appears to be catching up with the commodity prices. As Tim pointed out, Gold and the CRB (Commodities Index) have been historically positively correlated. While commenting on Emerging Markets, Tim also pointed out how China and the EMs have stayed divergent from rising commodity prices.

Tim’s broader conclusion and bottom line was that given the abundant liquidity scenario, the secular bull reset has increased the possibilities of a cyclical and a longer bull phase.

Next was the customary “State of the Association” presentation by Alvin Kressler, CEO and Executive Director of CMT Association. He walked us through the Association’s journey so far, highlighting the different measures considered for smooth conduct of the examinations during the pandemic.

The final phase of the meeting featured a panel discussion by Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA and Kush Ghodasara, CMT, CFP. The theme of the discussion was “Investment Ideas for the Financial Year 2021-22,” which was moderated by Mohit Handa, CMT.

Milan’s presentation focused on taking a macro technical view on various asset classes and the iimplication of this view within Indian equity markets. While taking a long-term technical view on the India’s benchmark NIFTY 50 Index, Milan compared the position of Equities as an asset class with other asset classes, such as US dollar and US Treasury Bonds on a Relative Rotation Graph (RRG). He examined the position of these asset classes while benchmarking them with the Vanguard Balance Index fund to highlight and examine the asset class rotation.

While analyzing the recent spike in US 10-year yield, Milan emphasized the need to adopt a defensive approach in the equity markets for the remainder of this calendar year and into the first quarter of 2022. His view was founded on the premise that Equities, as an asset class, may underperform the other assets on a relative basis, even if their individual performance continues.

Milan walked participants through various Indian Sector Indexes on the RRG benchmarked against the broader NIFTY500 Index. He highlighted how the rotation of safer and defensive sectors such as Pharma, IT (info tech), FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), and Consumption showed their relative outperformance and resilience against the broader markets. Further to support this view, he walked through the Relative Strength charts of these indices, along with the charts of these Sector Indices which were likely to show good technical strength over the coming months. Milan highlighted through Relative Comparison charts how these defensive sectors had underperformed on a YTD basis and explained how they hold a better chance of playing a catch up over the coming months.

Kush followed up with his short presentation with some stock-specific ideas. He discussed several favorable investment setups using a combination of a few fundamental inputs, as well as technical analysis. While discussing the current economic situation given the pandemic, Kush identified a few sectors which he forecasted would do well over the coming months. He discussed interesting investment setups, which included stocks from the Electric Motor Vehicle (EMV) space, stocks from the digital markets and Life Insurance space.

The other investment ideas that Kush discussed were from the asset management, consumer products and aviation sectors, which he asserted presented great investment opportunity over the coming months.

After an interesting panel discussion, there was a Q&A session which revolved around different technical analysis concepts.

Contributor(s)

Foram Chheda, CMT

Foram Chheda, CMT is a Technical Research Analyst and founder of chartanalytics.co.in. Besides being a high-impact financial specialist with a strong ability to identify initiatives and spot opportunities, she has a steadfast focus on equities and commodities. A savvy and skilled financial...

Join us at the European Summit: Global Themes for A Changing World

Join us at the 2021 European Summit on July 1 & 2. Featuring a slate of global thinkers and leading analysts, the European Summit is uniquely adapted to a digital-first experience.

The Summit will take place fully online, and will encompass global equity markets as well as key global indices, Digital and Fiat currencies, Treasury yields and rates as they impact other asset classes, and the Commodities space. Expect to leave with cutting edge tools, trading strategies and actionable insights to improve your investment decisions.
Registration Information

  • Non-Member standard registration: $100
  • Members and Students (including CMT Program Candidates): FREE

Please take note that the recordings will be available to all registrants on the CMT Conferences Digital Event Guide platform until August 2, 2021.

Times (GMT)

  • 10:00 AM – 12:30 PM GMT
  • 2:00 PM – 4:30 PM GMT

Confirmed Speakers

  • Tim Hayes, CMT, CFA – Ned Davis Research
  • Alejandra Grindal – Ned Davis Research
  • Steven Goldstein – AlphaRCubed
  • Greg King, CFA – Osprey Funds
  • JC Parets, CMT – All-Star Charts
  • Dimitri Speck – Seasonax Capital

Register by visiting our Calendar of Events or our European Summit page.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood, CMT

Tyler Wood serves as Managing Director of CMT Association with the aim of elevating investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. He is a seasoned business...

Virtual Event: Upcoming Webcast With NeuraVest

The CMT Association is excited to announce that JP Gravitt and Eric Davidson, CMT will be joining the Educational Web Series next week, June 23rd at 8AM ET. JP and Eric will present on Using Alternative Data to Produce Superior Investment Results.

They will discuss how generating alpha as a portfolio manager requires moving beyond traditional fundamental and pricing data. Unstructured and semi-structured information sources, also known as alternative data, can be incorporated with traditional inputs to best model market moving events and cause effect relationships; this presentation will cover the best ways to apply this type of data.

JP Gravitt is the Head of Data and Strategy at Neuravest Research. As Head of Data and Strategy, Gravitt heads the research and data team to help bring on various alternative and traditional data sets while determining the utility of those sets on a standalone basis, as well as in concert with other data sets. He oversees a team of analysts both in New York and in Neuravest’s Atlanta-based headquarters that will ultimately build and monitor optimized specific thematic portfolios for clients.

Eric Davidson is the EVP of Strategic Partnerships & Accounts at Neuravest Research. Eric ensures the success of strategic accounts and develops new business with alternative data providers and forward-thinking investment management firms. He has more than fifteen years of experience in operational, business development and strategic roles within the financial technology and analytics sectors.

You can register for the event by visiting our Calendar of Events, or by visiting the event page directly.

Contributor(s)

Emily E.A. Meyer

Emily Elizabeth-Anne Meyer is the Head of Marketing – Americas at FlexTrade. She served as the Director of Marketing for the CMT Association until 2021.

New Episode of Fill the Gap Podcast

The Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, CMT joins Fill the Gap for a conversation about the history of markets, and market technicians. As the co-founder of the “MTA” in the late 1960s, Ralph’s passion for the discipline of technical market analysis has not waned a bit in his 50-year career on Wall Street.

Discussing long-term secular market trends and periods of extended market expansion, Ralph shares that we may be in a fifth “Mega Market” cycle. Comparing historical periods of great economic expansion, Ralph coined the term to describe post-war market rallies in his book “The Fourth Mega Market” which he penned in the 1990s.  As the world slowly begins to emerge from the COVID pandemic, the massive injection of funding for research to fight the virus will likely be commercialized in the period ahead, helping extend a global bull market over the coming years.

Ralph opens up about his lifelong passion for historical study, his experience computing indicators and plotting charts by hand in the windowless “War Rooms” of the 1960s and 70s, and gaining direct advice from veteran technical analysts such as Ralph Rotnem and Ken Ward in his early career. These were the giants upon whose shoulders the technical community was built. Ralph references his personal Chart Museum, as well as other moments when the CMT Association library played a key role in expanding global finance knowledge.

Ralph’s riveting stories about his accidental start in finance, as well as the contributions he’s made to the discipline of technical analysis over the last five decades, provide critical insight and context for market technicians operating in today’s digital-first environment. To better understand the concepts he references, we recommend you review the supplemental resources accompanying this episode using this link: go.staging.cmtassociation.org/ftge6.

Contributor(s)

Tyler Wood, CMT

Tyler Wood serves as Managing Director of CMT Association with the aim of elevating investors’ mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. He is a seasoned business...

CMT Photo Archive

This is an occasional series revisiting the Association in picture, just to offer a glimpse into our past, and in-person events as a reminder of what we aspire to in the future.

If you have any pictures from seminars, meetings or after work get-togethers please submit them (in digital form, if possible) and include the date, location, and people in the photo. Better yet, if you remember presentations or topics of conversation that relevant to the current markets, let us know. There’s nothing like revisiting market history as it relates to the current environment.

CMT Past Presidents

These photos were extracted from the new stash of old newsletters we just acquired. Each person below was President of the Association but the dates of the photos are not necessarily during their tenure. If you ask me, they all look even better today.

Phil Roth, CMT 1989
Robert Prechter, Jr. 1990
Bruce Kamich, CMT 1992
Ken Tower, CMT 1992

Contributor(s)

Michael Kahn, CMT

Michael Kahn, who holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, is a seasoned financial services strategist, analyst, columnist, educator and speaker.  Michael has been working with charts and technical analysis since 1986. He is the author of three books on technical analysis...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

  • Gustavo Gallardo, CMT, Subgerente de Sales and Trading at FYNSA
  • Vineet Sood, CFA, CMT, Chief Operating Officer at Omkara capital Pvt Ltd
  • Krunal Desai, Financial Planning Analyst at Citi
  • Sajjad Shariff, MBA, CMT, CSM, SA SAFe, CMMI, Release Train Engineer at TISTA Science and Technology Corporation
  • Joshua I Wilson, CMT, Partner at Acruence Capital
  • Manav Chopra, CMT, Vice President- Institution Technical Research at Edelweiss Financial Services Limited
  • Justin Davidson, Portfolio Manager at Anchor Capital

CMT Program

Now that the June 2021 test administration is over, many candidates are wondering when and how they will receive their exam results. Reviewing, finalizing, and communicating exam results may take up to eight weeks from the end of the testing period. CMT Level I and II results will be emailed to candidates by Prometric. CMT Level III results will arrive in an email from the CMT Association.

Candidates will receive a Pass/Fail result accompanied by a report on how well they did in the major categories of the exam.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in May 2021.

  • James Bateman
  • Ryan Williams

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.