Technically Speaking, July 2020

The summer doldrums are upon us but given the slowdown in economic activity, it is hard to tell the difference. The pandemic remains topic one, while politics is creeping higher up the list. How will stocks do if Red wins? Or if Blue wins? Or if the rapper is actually serious?

As technical analysts, fortunately we don’t have to worry too much about all that. The market will sniff it out for us and it will be our job to read the signals it provides.

How have you all been coping with the socially distanced, everybody has cooties, world? We’d like to know so send in a few notes to us here at editor@cmtassociation.com. What are your clients doing differently? What are their views? Are you working from home? How has your business changed? And what can the Association do to help you?

Our President, Scott Richter, offers up some resources in his note within. However, due to last minute editing issues, we are without a feature article this month. Perhaps you, dear member, would like to submit something? As long as it is not a sales pitch or a black box, we’d love to read about an analysis or technique you use.

Have you read a good book on trading or analysis? Why not send in a quick half-page review?

What about software? Are you using something that is really helpful or unique? Tell us about it.

Otherwise, we’ve got Association news inside here, reviews of the June NY, Northern Ohio and India virtual chapter meetings and our member interview with Robert Peirce. Bob is retired now after a long career but still offers up his excellent long-term analysis to various chat rooms. We also have an exciting update on some new additions to our Academic Partner Program.

Don’t let the new world order get you down! And don’t let that be an excuse not to participate in your Association.

Michael Kahn, CMT

Editor

What's Inside...

Break So Not to Break

It is my sincere hope that each of you is safe and well.

I wanted to reach out to you...

Read More

NY Chapter Virtual Meeting Summary

On Thursday, June 11, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted a panel discussion and virtual happy hour with three distinguished...

Read More

India Chapter Meeting Summary

The India chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting on June 27.

COVID-19 has severely affected the real...

Read More

Northern Ohio Chapter Meeting Summary

The Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Tools for Navigating Volatility and Managing Uncertainty,” on...

Read More

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I’m retired now but I used to be the chief portfolio manager for...

Read More

New Academic Partnerships Introduce More Students to Technical Analysis

Over the past several months, the CMT Association has been hard at work presenting to various financial and academic institutions...

Read More

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Robert Philip,...

Read More

Break So Not to Break

It is my sincere hope that each of you is safe and well.

I wanted to reach out to you and suggest that you “Break, so Not to Break,” as a little reminder from me to you to take care of your physical and mental health during this health challenge known as COVID-19.

Over the last several months, I have been joking around with friends, family, and colleagues by saying I am working twice as many hours and getting half as much sleep! I am kidding … but also I’m not. It is a disguised message that I’m facing a mountain of mental stress. It’s the touch-in meetings, the Zoom meetings, the Board meetings. It’s working from home, it’s social distancing, it’s masks. It’s the financial pressure, the uncertainty, the overload. It’s our health and the health of loved ones. It’s the information, the misinformation, and it’s too much of both. There is so much, and it is very volatile.

There are many of you that are feeling this same pressure due to COVID-19. I know because I have spoken to you about it. You see it all around, too. This is real, and it is going to be here a while.

I have noticed so many articles written by health professionals about the toll we face mentally when we are subject to COVID-induced levels of stress, anxiety, fear, sadness, and loneliness. This context can also worsen mental health disorders like anxiety and depression. I felt it necessary to share some of their advice with you.

Let me be clear – if you need professional help – please go out and seek it. We are not giving medical advice. But if you’re experiencing some of the high levels of stress that we all have in common, take some advice on self-care strategies and get the care you need to help cope with the situation.

Here are a few self-care strategies:

First – Physical Health

  • Get adequate sleep. This is one of the most important things you can do for your physical and mental well-being. Do not shortchange yourself on sleep!
  • Get some exercise and move! If you can – get outside so you can maintain social distancing.
  • Try yoga or Tai Chi, if you are ambitious.
  • Eat a well-balanced diet.
  • Limit substances. I will leave it there. Using generally makes things worse.
  • Limit electronics – that can be phone, tablet, PC, or television – and resist the urge to “doom scroll,” repeatedly refreshing a constant feed of news and information.
  • Take Breaks – Relax and recharge periodically. Even a few minutes of quiet time can be helpful.

Next – Mental Health

  • Breathe regularly. Sounds silly – but do not forget. We often do.
  • Consider some type of meditation or mindfulness, which can be a wonderful way to quiet the mind and support the nervous system. If you need some direction, reach out to me and I’ll help you get going here.
  • Reduce stress by keeping a regular schedule. Have boundaries, especially when working from home.
  • Set aside time for yourself. Break, so Not to Break! Make sure there’s time for something you enjoy doing!
  • Limit exposure to news media. (As traders and investment professionals, we already know this.)
  • Focus on positive thoughts. Look for solutions.
  • Focus on gratitude and what you are thankful for in your life every day.
  • Keep problems in perspective. We are all adapting to the changes this pandemic is throwing at us. Be gentle with yourself and others too.
  • Set priorities and reasonable goals each day to maintain some control.
  • Connect with others. This can be friends, family, or associates.  Make the first move! Do not wait. This has a multiplier effect for good!
  • Do something for others and find purpose in helping those around you. Taking the focus off yourself and assisting others usually brings a great psychological lift and does good at the same time.

Stress is a normal part of life, especially for investment professionals, as we are in one of the more stressful, performance-based professions. But, if it gets to be too much, then there are negative psychological and physical reactions. Please be careful and consider some of these suggestions to cope and get to the other side.

Please be well and be safe. Reach out to me if I can help you.

Until next time.

Scott 

PS – If, despite your best efforts to cope, you find yourself feeling helpless, sad, angry, irritable, hopeless, anxious/afraid day after day, you many need to ask for help professionally.  Please do not wait to get the help you need. There are many types of help available; from someone in your faith community, to your employer, to your mental health professional or primary care physician. This is important. Nobody is an island.

Contributor(s)

Scott G. Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP

Scott Richter, CMT, CFA, CHP is a senior portfolio manager for Westfield, which manages over $4B in AUM.  He is the lead portfolio manager for alternative assets and is also responsible for investments in the energy and utility sectors.  He was formerly...

NY Chapter Virtual Meeting Summary

On Thursday, June 11, 2020, the New York Chapter hosted a panel discussion and virtual happy hour with three distinguished Chartered Market Technicians; Paul Ciana, Dan Russo, and J.C. Parets. This casual-style meeting allotted each presenter 15-20 minutes to share their views on the market environment, with moderator Tyler Wood reading questions from the chat along the way. The last 30 minutes of the meeting was dedicated to any remaining questions and friendly banter between the panelists.

First up to present was Tyler Wood, Managing Director of Global Business Development at the CMT Association. Before introducing the panelists, Tyler discussed some of the major changes the organization is making to exams, chapter meetings, and events as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The next exam window for those interested is December 1-15, 2020 and registration is now open.

Dan Russo, co-chair of the NY Chapter and Chief Market Strategist at Chaikin Analytics, was first to present. Dan’s approach combines his firm’s quantitative models, which are primarily driven by fundamental factors, with a top-down technical approach. Dan’s presentation discussed how he is unconvinced that the recent rotation into cyclical stocks and interest rate-related intermarket relationships is the real deal. Given the weak global growth environment, he’s focused the last 15-months or so on owning the growth aspects of the stock market; a strategy that has worked well and he expects it to continue to do so.

In addition to outlining this broader thesis, he outlined several things he would need to see before materially changing his outlook, some of which included the Copper/Gold and Equal-Weighted Consumer Discretionary/Consumer Staples ratios to begin trending higher.

Paul Ciana, the Chief Global FICC* Technical Strategist and Director of Research at Bank of America, was up next. Rather than go through dozens of charts like Dan and JC, he chose to speak off-the-cuff about several of the major themes he’s seeing and questions he’s getting from clients. Before getting into it, he gave three pieces of advice: 1) never show up to a meeting without your charts; 2) hang your CMT Designation proudly, and 3) there’s always a narrative in the market (and more often than not there are two prevailing narratives).

Paul did a great job of explaining why a lot of the recent volatility in the currency space may have been caused by positioning and sentiment unwinds. He notes this is particularly prevalent in several US dollar pairs relative to Emerging Market currencies, such as the South African rand, which are in long-term uptrends but corrected sharply since late March. He discussed other popular FICC*-related topics, such as Bonds, Gold, and Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen, before getting into some of the more obscure relationships, such as the Norwegian Krone/Swedish Krona.

Last up was J.C. Parets, Founder and Chief Market Strategist at All Star Charts. Before jumping into his top-down approach to markets, J.C. reminded us that Technical Analysis doesn’t give us all the answers but it helps us ask the right questions. Throughout his presentation, he shared many of the questions he’s asking about the current market environment.

Is the breakout in the Nasdaq 100 and Technology sector on the verge of failing? Which way is this consolidation in Gold going to resolve? What is the action in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities vs Treasuries ratio, regional banks vs REITs ratio, and other intermarket relationships saying about interest rates going forward? Finally, he discussed several potential trade setups on the long side that will likely perform well if the broader market doesn’t continue to correct to the downside.

I think I speak for all of the attendees in saying that this meeting was a real treat. If you were unable to attend live, don’t fret, you can access the archived video at staging.cmtassociation.org/video.

Thank you again to Dan, Paul, and J.C. for sharing their insights with us. Look out for another virtual New York Chapter meeting in July!

* FICC is the acronym for fixed income, currencies, and commodities

Contributor(s)

Tom Bruni, CMT

Tom Bruni, CMT, is the Head of Market Research at Stocktwits, where he publishes the brand’s flagship market recap newsletter, “The Daily Rip,” for one million subscribers and oversees the platform’s growing publishing efforts. Bruni has been at the intersection of finance and media...

India Chapter Meeting Summary

The India chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting on June 27.

COVID-19 has severely affected the real economy in India. At the same time, it pushed all financial markets professionals to adopt digital teleconferencing tools. This has given us opportunities to engage with members in a far more efficient manner. Virtual meetings allow speakers, members and guests from across the country to get together and share.

Virtual meetings in India follow a standard format. A fireside chat where a senior charterholder from India speaks with a guest about their technical analysis journey, and the lessons they have learned along the way, followed by a CMT charterholder who speaks about the work they are doing. Then, a CMT Association staff member delivers a “State of the Association” address, and a guest speaker closes the day with a talk on their investment process.

For the June 2020 India Virtual Meeting, the session was as follows:

  • A Fireside Chat with Vishal Mehta, CMT, India Chapter Co-chair and founder, Marketscanner.in and Jamie Coutts, CMT, Market Specialist for Buyside Equity, Bloomberg LP. That was an interesting exchange of ideas with a lot of perspective for budding technical analysts.
  • A New Approach to Market Breadth, by Prasenjit Biswas, CMT, Derivatives Research Analyst, Kotak Securities, Ltd. Prasenjit shared some insights on the original work his doing on what he calls “Total Breadth Index.”
  • The State of CMT Association, delivered by Tyler Wood, MBA, Managing Director & Head of Business Development, CMT Association. Tyler brought the audience up to speed on the latest news across the CMT Association, worldwide. He also had useful updates for candidates preparing for the December exams.
  • Stock selection based on TMV & MTF by Asit Pati, F&O Trader & Trainer of the Indian Equity Market. Asit shared his unique process of analysis that has helped him develop his process, and achieve record rates of intraday profitability with strongly controlled risk. Asit also shared is that he is impressed with the work we are doing, and is starting his CMT journey this December.

Contributor(s)

Joel Pannikot

Joel Pannikot (pronounced as Punny-Quote) is the Managing Director of Chartered Market Technician Private Limited and serves as the Head of the Asia-Pacific region for the CMT Association. In this role, he is committed to advancing the field of technical analysis through...

Northern Ohio Chapter Meeting Summary

The Northern Ohio Chapter of the CMT Association held a virtual meeting, “Tools for Navigating Volatility and Managing Uncertainty,” on June 24, with guest speaker Katie Stockton, CMT (Founder and Managing Partner of Fairfield Strategies, LLC). The markets the day of the meeting were volatile, which allowed for a very informative and interesting presentation. She covered how she uses technical analysis to identify market trends, and using specific concepts and tools to stay on the right side to provide short-, intermediate-, and long-term forecasts for clients.

Using multiple charts as examples, Katie described what she saw in each of them: support, resistance, trend lines and momentum. She fielded specific questions on stocks from the audience. When asked about predicting markets during the election cycle, Katie replied that she plans on just using price action and the technicals to see how markets react.

It was a pleasure having Katie present for our chapter, and we hope to have her visit in person when it’s safer to do so.

The Northern Ohio Chapter is looking forward to hosting Brian Shannon, CMT on August 25th as our next virtual speaker.

Contributor(s)

Kevin C. Pietrzyk, CMT, CFTe

Bio Coming

Member Interview

Please tell us what you do professionally.

I’m retired now but I used to be the chief portfolio manager for Cookson, Peirce.

How did you get there?

I went to work for the B&O Railroad in 1964.  I had an EE degree from Carnegie Tech and went into their management training program.

By late 1965, everybody was getting interested in the market so I decided to take a look.  My first and only broker was George Fugler, who was with Merrill Lynch at the time, before moving to Walston, in Baltimore.  He introduced me to Edwards & Magee, along with Don Worden and Sedge Coppock.  Later I discovered Marty Zweig, Larry Williams and a number of other folks who at that time were actually doing and publishing research.  Essentially, I’m self-taught.

I was in Operations Research at the time but was able to get transferred to the Finance Department in Cleveland.  Unfortunately, this was a strictly fundamental shop.  I tried to develop interest in TA but got nowhere.  Interestingly, Don Hahn from AG Becker swung thru Cleveland once a year and everybody was interested in what he had to say.  Through Don, I interviewed at Putnam at the same time as Walter Deemer and Bob Simpkins.  Walt got the job.  However, Don got me in touch with Don Gordon at CS McKee in Pittsburgh, who was looking for a technician.  I later moved into portfolio management, staying there until 1984, when I left to start Cookson, Peirce.  I retired in 2010.

Speaking of Putnam, a big reason I left CS McKee was that Norton Reamer, who was at Putnam when I interviewed, was trying to put together some kind of money management combine and got CS McKee involved.  I would have had to get a CFA to stay on, and fundamentals never did make much sense to me!

Who was an early mentor in your career?

George Fugler showed me the TA ropes.

What book/author was most influential in helping you understand TA?

There were many.  Probably Edwards & Magee was first, but I read pretty much anything I could get my hands on.  Possibly the most influential was Bob Levy, who introduced me to the “cast out” approach to relative strength (RS) and that was what made managing money with RS possible.

What do you like to do when you are not looking at markets?

Taking my car to the track.  Reading about cars, etc.  I used to play golf but not lately.  I’m also into high-end audio.

What brought you to the CMT Association?

I think I read about the Association in Barron’s, looked into it and joined.  Early on I went to a number of the seminars.  I remember getting really sick at Chatham Bar and missing the Gnome of Zurich!  I’ve not been active in recent years and miss the longer-term analysis.  I could never make any money trading short-term, so I gave it up years ago to concentrate on longer-term trends.

Contributor(s)

Robert Peirce

Robert Peirce is a principal and co-founder of Cookson, Peirce & Co. Inc.

New Academic Partnerships Introduce More Students to Technical Analysis

Over the past several months, the CMT Association has been hard at work presenting to various financial and academic institutions about the Academic Partner Program (APP). Selection for the CMT Association’s Academic Partner Program signifies a strong commitment to students’ career readiness and applied learning. Institutions that join the Academic Partner Program demonstrate academic rigor in financial courses ranging from quantitative methodologies to behavioral finance, as well as portfolio management and other key aspects of technical analysis.

We are proud to announce that in the past two months, we have partnered with Fintech Institute in Vietnam, Messiah University in Pennsylvania, and Wall Street Bound in New York City.

Professor Dwayne Safer  of Messiah University will be teaching the CMT curriculum in his Financial Management and Investment classes.  Messiah University is a top-ranked private university of the liberal and applied arts and sciences in central Pennsylvania, just 12 miles from the state capital of Harrisburg. With a reputation for successfully integrating rigorous academics and Christian faith into all of the academic programs, the university offers 150+ undergraduate and pre-professional degree options and 27 graduate degree and certificate programs.

Fintech Institute is part of the University of Economics – Ho Chi Minh City that is a multi-disciplinary university and is one of the largest Vietnamese universities in the field economics and business administration. The University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City is dedicated to excellence both in offering students a broad range of high-quality academic programs in Economics Science, Business, Management, and Law; and applying the results of scientific research directly into real-world situations, making pivotal contributions to Vietnam’s development in the context of global economic integration. Professor Đinh Ha Van will be teaching the CMT curriculum in his Finance courses.

Troy Prince, a member of the New York finance community, founded Wall Street Bound in 2018 with the mission to get more urban youth into the front offices of Wall Street. The CMT Association will work directly with Troy by enrolling students in the Wall Street Bound program into the Level I of the CMT Program and teaching the technical skills of equity & data analysis, trading, and investing, to help students unlock fulfilling careers as investment professionals.

These partnerships illustrate an innovative solution to the growing demand for student education and career preparedness, while advocating for the advancement of technical analysis. If you or someone you know is interested in introducing an institution to the Academic Partner Program, our 2020 APP Fact Sheet is now available for download on the Academic Partner Program page.

Contributor(s)

Barbara Terry

Barbara Terry is the CMT Association’s volunteer coordinator, based in New York. She has close to 20 years of experience in large-scale project management and account management roles, and is an invaluable resource for the CMT Association’s event planning team.  Barbara holds...

Membership News

Members on the Move

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members on their new positions:

Robert Philip, Senior Technical Analyst & Market Strategist at Saigon Securities Inc

Dan Draper, CMT, Chief Executive Officer at S&P Dow Jones Indices

Ankur Aggarwal, Client Solutions at FactSet

CMT

The CMT Association now offers Remote Proctoring for the exams, starting with the December 2020 test administration. For more information about remote proctoring, please click on the following link:  https://cmta.dev/chartered-market-technician/cmt-exams-remote-proctoring/. We expect that remote proctoring will remain an option for test-takers in the future.

Candidates have the choice of taking the exam at a Prometric test center or scheduling an appointment for remote proctoring.  Be sure to test your computer before scheduling a remote proctoring exam using the above link.

If you have completed the CMT Level III exam or are presently registered to take the exam in December, and have the necessary professional work experience, do not forget to apply for the Professional Member status.

If you have any questions about the Professional Membership process, please forward your questions to admin@cmtassociation.org.

The CMT Association would like to congratulate the following members who received their CMT Designation in June 2020.

  • Edward Jarrell
  • Stefan Kuzmanov
  • Anatoli Likhatchev
  • Jeff McGinn
  • Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe

Contributor(s)

Marie Penza

Marie Penza serves as the Director of Member Services for the CMT Association.